A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Ashlyn Krueger goes up against Iga Swiatek in the Wuhan round of 16. Iga Swiatek comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Ashlyn Krueger has won 5 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Swiatek win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.