Barbora Palicova and Ekaterine Gorgodze meet in the round of 16 at Tolentino on Thursday. Ekaterine Gorgodze comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Barbora Palicova is 5-5 across recent matches.

Ekaterine Gorgodze simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Palicova comes in off a compressed schedule; Gorgodze arrives with very little recovery time. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Gorgodze is exactly that — a lean.