Ben Shelton won 6-7 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 67% on Carlos Alcaraz; Ben Shelton won 6-7 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open quarterfinal. Carlos Alcaraz has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Ben Shelton brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten.
Carlos Alcaraz is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Alcaraz around 67%. The edge belongs to Alcaraz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Ben Shelton | Carlos Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 67.1% | 64.1% |
| 1st serve points won | 74.4% | 69.9% |
| 2nd serve points won | 54.4% | 54.4% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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