Friday's US Open semifinal pits Ben Shelton against Frances Tiafoe on hard. Ben Shelton is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Frances Tiafoe has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.

Ben Shelton simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Shelton — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.