US Open · R64 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 2, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC
Ben Shelton vs. Hubert Hurkacz — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 2, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Ben Shelton against Hubert Hurkacz on hard. Ben Shelton comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Hubert Hurkacz brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Ben Shelton simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-161(61.7% Shelton)
Market-214(68.1% Shelton)
Sources: Market consensus (average across books). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Ben Shelton
2011
Hubert Hurkacz
1871
Overall rating
Ben Shelton
2029
Hubert Hurkacz
1951
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Ben Shelton
Hubert Hurkacz
1st serve in
66.8%
63.2%
1st serve points won
74.5%
76%
2nd serve points won
54.7%
49.4%
Form
Ben Shelton
8–2
Hubert Hurkacz
8–2
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Maiden gives Ben Shelton a 62% chance to beat Hubert Hurkacz in the US Open round of 64 on September 2, 2026.
How confident is the Ben Shelton pick?
62% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 62%, picks in that range have won 59% of the time (160 so far). See the track record page for the full table.