Wednesday's US Open round of 64 pits Ben Shelton against Hubert Hurkacz on hard. Ben Shelton comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Hubert Hurkacz brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.

Ben Shelton simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.