Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet in the round of 16 at US Open on Sunday. Ben Shelton is 8-2 across recent matches. Stefanos Tsitsipas is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.