Friday's Los Cabos quarterfinal pits Bernard Tomic against Cameron Norrie on hard. Cameron Norrie is 4-6 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Norrie fractionally more likely to land the big points.