Thursday's Los Cabos round of 16 pits Bernard Tomic against Karen Khachanov on hard. Karen Khachanov is 6-4 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Karen Khachanov simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Khachanov should have enough here, though Tomic has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.