Thursday's St. Tropez round of 16 pits Billy Harris against Murphy Cassone on hard. Billy Harris is 4-6 across recent matches. Murphy Cassone has won 5 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Cassone comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Harris fractionally more likely to land the big points.