A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Blake Ellis goes up against Ilia Simakin in the Phan Thiet 4 (Vietnam) round of 16. Ilia Simakin brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Blake Ellis comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Ilia Simakin is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Simakin around 71%. Ellis comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Simakin — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.