Saturday's Cincinnati semifinal pits Brandon Nakashima against Frances Tiafoe on hard. Brandon Nakashima brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Frances Tiafoe brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Nakashima fractionally more likely to land the big points.