A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Nuno Borges in the Cincinnati round of 16. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Nuno Borges brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

Brandon Nakashima is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Nakashima around 61%. Nakashima comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Nakashima.