A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Ugo Humbert in the Tokyo round of 32. Brandon Nakashima has won 7 of the last 10. Ugo Humbert is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Brandon Nakashima simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Nakashima.