Cameron Norrie and Camilo Ugo Carabelli meet in the first round at Montreal on Tuesday. Cameron Norrie is 4-6 across recent matches. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Cameron Norrie simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Norrie.