Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 2-6 6-2 7-5
A miss: Ilia Simakin at 59% lost to Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-6 6-2 7-5).
Thursday's Shanghai first round pits Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Ilia Simakin on hard. Ilia Simakin has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Simakin has been winning 73.4% of first-serve points to Carabelli's 66.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Simakin gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 62.4% | 62% |
| 1st serve points won | 66.2% | 73.4% |
| 2nd serve points won | 48.1% | 51.1% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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