Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Marko Topo meet in the round of 32 at Umag on Tuesday. Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won 6 of the last 10. Marko Topo comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Carabelli is exactly that — a lean.