Umag · R16 · Clay · best of 3 · Jul 15, 2026, 3:30 PM UTC

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Pablo Carreno Busta — result and pick review

By The Maiden Desk · July 15, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 3-6 7-5 7-5 · Jul 15, 2026, 7:16 PM UTC

We got this one wrong. Our final number was 54% on Pablo Carreno Busta; Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 3-6 7-5 7-5.

Wednesday's Umag round of 16 pits Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Pablo Carreno Busta on clay. Pablo Carreno Busta has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 6-4 across recent matches.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Pablo Carreno Busta. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Carabelli — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Busta fractionally more likely to land the big points.

The numbers behind the pick

Surface ratings

Clay rating

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1752

Pablo Carreno Busta

1812

Overall rating

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1805

Pablo Carreno Busta

1818

Serve

Serve (last 52 weeks)	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Pablo Carreno Busta
1st serve in	61.2%	65.3%
1st serve points won	67.5%	68.1%
2nd serve points won	47.3%	49.6%

Form

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6–4

Pablo Carreno Busta

6–4

Head to head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads the head-to-head 1-0. On clay: 1-0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli.

Full Carabelli vs Busta history →

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Pablo Carreno Busta at Umag?: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 3-6 7-5 7-5.
Was the Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Pablo Carreno Busta prediction correct?: We got this one wrong. Our final number was 54% on Pablo Carreno Busta; Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 3-6 7-5 7-5.
What is the head-to-head record between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Pablo Carreno Busta?: Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads the head-to-head 1-0. On clay: 1-0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli.