Carlos Alcaraz won 6-4 7-6
Nailed it. We had Carlos Alcaraz at 67% before the match, and Carlos Alcaraz won 6-4 7-6.
Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev meet in the semifinal at Vienna on Saturday. Carlos Alcaraz has won 8 of the last 10. Daniil Medvedev brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Alcaraz comes in off a compressed schedule; Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Alcaraz.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Carlos Alcaraz | Daniil Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 64% | 62.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 69.9% | 72.8% |
| 2nd serve points won | 54.5% | 48.9% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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