Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov meet in the quarterfinal at Tokyo on Sunday. Carlos Alcaraz has won 8 of the last 10. Denis Shapovalov has won 7 of the last 10.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Denis Shapovalov — preview and prediction
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Carlos Alcaraz
2216
Denis Shapovalov
1900
Overall rating
Carlos Alcaraz
2282
Denis Shapovalov
1874
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Carlos Alcaraz | Denis Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 64% | 58.8% |
| 1st serve points won | 69.9% | 74.7% |
| 2nd serve points won | 54.5% | 50.1% |
Form
Carlos Alcaraz
8–2
Denis Shapovalov
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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More Tokyo picks
All Tokyo predictions →Frequently asked questions
- When does Maiden's pick for Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov open?
- Maiden's pick and win probability for Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov open to everyone an hour after first serve and stay on the public record, graded after the match. Maiden Pro members see them before the match.
- When and where is Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov?
- Tokyo quarterfinal, October 4, 2026, on hard.