A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Carlos Alcaraz goes up against Matteo Arnaldi in the Tokyo round of 16. Carlos Alcaraz comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Matteo Arnaldi has won 4 of the last 10.
Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Arnaldi needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Carlos Alcaraz | Matteo Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 64% | 58.5% |
| 1st serve points won | 69.9% | 70.1% |
| 2nd serve points won | 54.5% | 50% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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