Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Casper Ruud against Christopher Oconnell on hard. Casper Ruud is 6-4 across recent matches. Christopher Oconnell has won 6 of the last 10.

Casper Ruud is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Ruud around 72%. The edge belongs to Ruud — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.