Shanghai · R16 · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 14, 2026, 7:05 AM UTC
Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime — result and pick review
By The Maiden Desk · October 14, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Result
Not graded
Casper Ruud won by retirement (5-2)
This match ended in a retirement, advancing Casper Ruud. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Casper Ruud and Felix Auger Aliassime meet in the round of 16 at Shanghai on Wednesday. Felix Auger Aliassime is 7-3 across recent matches. Casper Ruud is 7-3 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Aliassime has been winning 75.5% of first-serve points to Ruud's 70.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Aliassime fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Casper Ruud
1894
Felix Auger Aliassime
1971
Overall rating
Casper Ruud
2006
Felix Auger Aliassime
2016
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Casper Ruud
Felix Auger Aliassime
1st serve in
65%
62.9%
1st serve points won
70.3%
75.5%
2nd serve points won
54.4%
49.6%
Form
Casper Ruud
7–3
Felix Auger Aliassime
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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