A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Casper Ruud goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai quarterfinal. Rafael Jodar has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Casper Ruud comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jodar is exactly that — a lean.