Tuesday's Toronto first round pits Caty Mcnally against Tatjana Maria on hard. Caty Mcnally has won 6 of the last 10. Tatjana Maria has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mcnally.