Christopher Oconnell and Joao Fonseca meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Joao Fonseca has won 6 of the last 10. Christopher Oconnell is 6-4 across recent matches.

Joao Fonseca is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fonseca around 76%. Anything other than a Fonseca win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.