A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Christopher Oconnell goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Cincinnati round of 16. Taylor Fritz comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Christopher Oconnell is 6-4 across recent matches.

Taylor Fritz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Oconnell needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.