A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Clement Tabur goes up against Jannik Sinner in the French Open first round. Jannik Sinner has won 9 of the last 10. Clement Tabur limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.

Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Sinner — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Tabur needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.