Elise Mertens won 6-3 6-3
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 70% on Coco Gauff; Elise Mertens won 6-3 6-3.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Coco Gauff goes up against Elise Mertens in the Beijing round of 16. Coco Gauff is 9-1 across recent matches. Elise Mertens has won 7 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Gauff should have enough here, though Mertens has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Coco Gauff | Elise Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 59.5% | 59.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 65.7% | 63.5% |
| 2nd serve points won | 42.7% | 43.2% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksOne email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.