The Cincinnati title is on the line on Sunday, when Coco Gauff meets Jessica Pegula. Jessica Pegula has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Coco Gauff brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Jessica Pegula has had the better of this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 against Coco Gauff. On hard specifically it reads 4-2 Pegula — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Gauff comes in off a compressed schedule; Pegula comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Pegula fractionally more likely to land the big points.