A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Coco Gauff goes up against Paula Badosa in the US Open round of 64. Coco Gauff has won 6 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Paula Badosa has won 9 of the last 10.

Coco Gauff simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule. Badosa needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.