US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Corentin Moutet vs. Dane Sweeny — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 1, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Corentin Moutet and Dane Sweeny meet in the first round at US Open on Tuesday. Corentin Moutet is 2-8 across recent matches. Dane Sweeny comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Corentin Moutet simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Moutet.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-168(62.7% Moutet)
Market-278(73.6% Moutet)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Corentin Moutet
1782
Dane Sweeny
1521
Overall rating
Corentin Moutet
1757
Dane Sweeny
1559
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Corentin Moutet
Dane Sweeny
1st serve in
66.2%
62.7%
1st serve points won
65.3%
66%
2nd serve points won
50.7%
49.5%
Form
Corentin Moutet
2–8
Dane Sweeny
4–6
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Corentin Moutet vs Dane Sweeny?
Maiden gives Corentin Moutet a 63% chance to beat Dane Sweeny in the US Open first round on September 1, 2026.
How confident is the Corentin Moutet pick?
63% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 63%, picks in that range have won 58% of the time (151 so far). See the track record page for the full table.