Tuesday's Winnipeg round of 32 pits D. Chan against James Mccabe on hard. James Mccabe is 4-6 across recent matches. D. Chan limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 0 wins in 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 72.3% versus 66.1% on first-serve points in Mccabe's favor. Anything other than a Mccabe win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.