Monday's Shanghai round of 32 pits Dalibor Svrcina against Daniil Medvedev on hard. Daniil Medvedev is rolling — 8 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Dalibor Svrcina is 4-6 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 72.8% versus 62.9% on first-serve points in Medvedev's favor. Svrcina needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.