It all comes down to Saturday at Umag, where Damir Dzumhur faces Daniel Merida Aguilar for the trophy. Daniel Merida Aguilar is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Damir Dzumhur is rolling — 4 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Daniel Merida Aguilar is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Aguilar around 68%. Aguilar should have enough here, though Dzumhur has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.