A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Damir Dzumhur goes up against Matteo Arnaldi in the Umag quarterfinal. Matteo Arnaldi has dropped 2 straight and sits at 8-2 over the last ten. Damir Dzumhur is 3-7 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Matteo Arnaldi, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Damir Dzumhur. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Arnaldi — worth more than the overall number this week.
Arnaldi's 70.4% behind the first serve (against 65.4% for Dzumhur) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Arnaldi — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.