Friday's Pozoblanco quarterfinal pits Dan Added against Ilya Ivashka on hard. Ilya Ivashka is 6-4 across recent matches. Dan Added has won 4 of the last 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Ilya Ivashka simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Added comes in off a compressed schedule; Ivashka comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ivashka is exactly that — a lean.