Tuesday's Szczecin round of 32 pits Daniel Elahi Galan against Facundo Diaz Acosta on clay. Facundo Diaz Acosta is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Daniel Elahi Galan has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

Facundo Diaz Acosta simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Galan needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.