A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Daniel Elahi Galan goes up against Lautaro Midon in the Guayaquil round of 16. Lautaro Midon has won 7 of the last 10. Daniel Elahi Galan has won 5 of the last 10.

Lautaro Midon is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Midon around 57%. Galan comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Midon fractionally more likely to land the big points.