Daniel Merida Aguilar and Kyrian Jacquet meet in the round of 32 at Estoril on Tuesday. Daniel Merida Aguilar is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Kyrian Jacquet limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Daniel Merida Aguilar simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. If Aguilar plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.