Cincinnati · R128 · Hard · best of 3 · Aug 14, 2026, 10:20 PM UTC
Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic — result and pick review
By The Maiden Desk · August 14, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Result
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Daniel Merida Aguilar won 3-6 6-1 6-1
Nailed it. We had Daniel Merida Aguilar at 54% before the match, and Daniel Merida Aguilar won 3-6 6-1 6-1.
Daniel Merida Aguilar and Marin Cilic meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Friday. Daniel Merida Aguilar brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Marin Cilic is 4-6 across recent matches.
Daniel Merida Aguilar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Aguilar around 54%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Aguilar fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1910
Marin Cilic
1770
Overall rating
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1940
Marin Cilic
1810
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Marin Cilic
1st serve in
69.3%
57.3%
1st serve points won
63.9%
76.4%
2nd serve points won
47%
50.7%
Form
Daniel Merida Aguilar
9–1
Marin Cilic
4–6
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Frequently asked questions
Who won Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic at Cincinnati?
Daniel Merida Aguilar won 3-6 6-1 6-1.
Was the Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic prediction correct?
Nailed it. We had Daniel Merida Aguilar at 54% before the match, and Daniel Merida Aguilar won 3-6 6-1 6-1.