Daniel Merida Aguilar and Marin Cilic meet in the first round at Cincinnati on Friday. Daniel Merida Aguilar brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Marin Cilic is 4-6 across recent matches.

Daniel Merida Aguilar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Aguilar around 54%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Aguilar fractionally more likely to land the big points.