Estoril · R32 · Clay · best of 3 · Jul 21, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC · Cancelled
Daniel Merida Aguilar vs. Taro Daniel — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · July 21, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
Share pick
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Daniel Merida Aguilar goes up against Taro Daniel in the Estoril round of 32. Daniel Merida Aguilar is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Taro Daniel limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Aguilar — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-156(61.0% Aguilar)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Taro Daniel?
Maiden gives Daniel Merida Aguilar a 61% chance to beat Taro Daniel in the Estoril round of 32 on July 21, 2026.
How confident is the Daniel Merida Aguilar pick?
61% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 61%, picks in that range have won 61% of the time (202 so far). See the track record page for the full table.
What is the head-to-head record between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Taro Daniel?