Porto · R32 · Hard · best of 3 · Sep 28, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC · Cancelled
Daniel Rincon vs Grigor Dimitrov — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 28, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Daniel Rincon goes up against Grigor Dimitrov in the Porto round of 32. Grigor Dimitrov has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Daniel Rincon has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Dimitrov has been winning 73.8% of first-serve points to Rincon's 68.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Dimitrov plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-300(75.0% Dimitrov)
Market-281(73.8% Dimitrov)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Daniel Rincon
1595
Grigor Dimitrov
1835
Overall rating
Daniel Rincon
1631
Grigor Dimitrov
1834
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Daniel Rincon
Grigor Dimitrov
1st serve in
58.8%
63.1%
1st serve points won
68.4%
73.8%
2nd serve points won
47.8%
48.6%
Form
Daniel Rincon
3–7
Grigor Dimitrov
4–6
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Daniel Rincon vs Grigor Dimitrov?
Maiden gives Grigor Dimitrov a 75% chance to beat Daniel Rincon in the Porto round of 32 on September 28, 2026.
How confident is the Grigor Dimitrov pick?
75% is a “Strong” tier pick. When we make a pick around 75%, picks in that range have won 70% of the time (201 so far). See the track record page for the full table.