Thursday's Porto round of 16 pits Daniel Rincon against Laslo Djere on hard. Laslo Djere is 7-3 across recent matches. Daniel Rincon is 3-7 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Djere has been winning 72.3% of first-serve points to Rincon's 68.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Rincon comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Djere fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Daniel Rincon | Laslo Djere |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 58.8% | 60.8% |
| 1st serve points won | 68.4% | 72.3% |
| 2nd serve points won | 47.8% | 49.1% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksTomorrow's card, before the first ball
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.