Daniel Vallejo and Matteo Berrettini meet in the round of 16 at Tokyo on Saturday. Matteo Berrettini is 6-4 across recent matches. Daniel Vallejo has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Berrettini has been winning 76.2% of first-serve points to Vallejo's 65.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Berrettini should have enough here, though Vallejo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Daniel Vallejo | Matteo Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 61.9% | 63.9% |
| 1st serve points won | 65.2% | 76.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.7% | 51.8% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksOne email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.