Daniel Vallejo won 6-1 6-3
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 70% on Rafael Jodar; Daniel Vallejo won 6-1 6-3.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Daniel Vallejo goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Tokyo round of 32. Rafael Jodar has won 7 of the last 10. Daniel Vallejo comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Jodar has been winning 69.5% of first-serve points to Vallejo's 65.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Jodar — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Daniel Vallejo | Rafael Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 61.9% | 61.8% |
| 1st serve points won | 65.2% | 69.5% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.7% | 51.1% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksOne email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.