Wednesday's Cassis round of 16 pits Daniil Glinka against Mathys Erhard on hard. Daniil Glinka is 7-3 across recent matches. Mathys Erhard has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Erhard comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Glinka.