Thursday's Villena round of 16 pits Daniil Glinka against Moez Echargui on clay. Daniil Glinka is 5-5 across recent matches. Moez Echargui has won 5 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Glinka comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Glinka.