Rome · SF · Clay · best of 3 · May 16, 2026, 4:05 PM UTC

Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner — result and pick review

By The Maiden Desk · May 16, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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Result

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Jannik Sinner won 6-2 5-7 5-4 · May 16, 2026, 4:33 PM UTC

We got this one right. Jannik Sinner was our 67% pick, and won 6-2 5-7 5-4.

Saturday's Rome semifinal pits Daniil Medvedev against Jannik Sinner on clay. Jannik Sinner brings a 10-match winning streak into this one, 10-0 across the last ten. Daniil Medvedev has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

Jannik Sinner has had the better of this rivalry, winning 10 of 17 against Daniil Medvedev. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Sinner — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Sinner — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

The numbers behind the pick

Surface ratings

Clay rating

Daniil Medvedev

1877

Jannik Sinner

2094

Overall rating

Daniil Medvedev

1989

Jannik Sinner

2299

Serve

Serve (last 52 weeks)	Daniil Medvedev	Jannik Sinner
1st serve in	62.2%	59.4%
1st serve points won	72.9%	72.3%
2nd serve points won	48.9%	53.1%

Form

Daniil Medvedev

7–3

Jannik Sinner

10–0

Head to head

Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head 10-7. On clay: 1-0 Jannik Sinner.

Full Medvedev vs Sinner history →

Frequently asked questions

Who won Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner at Rome?: Jannik Sinner won 6-2 5-7 5-4.
Was the Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner prediction correct?: We got this one right. Jannik Sinner was our 67% pick, and won 6-2 5-7 5-4.
What is the head-to-head record between Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner?: Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head 10-7. On clay: 1-0 Jannik Sinner.