Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic meet in the semifinal at Beijing on Monday. Novak Djokovic brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Daniil Medvedev brings a 7-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Djokovic comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Djokovic fractionally more likely to land the big points.