Shanghai · SF · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 17, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC
Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Jodar — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 17, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Saturday's Shanghai semifinal pits Daniil Medvedev against Rafael Jodar on hard. Daniil Medvedev is rolling — 10 straight wins, 10 of 10 in recent play. Rafael Jodar has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Medvedev's 72.8% behind the first serve (against 69.4% for Jodar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Medvedev fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-129(56.4% Medvedev)
Market-174(63.5% Medvedev)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Daniil Medvedev
2031
Rafael Jodar
1965
Overall rating
Daniil Medvedev
2035
Rafael Jodar
2071
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Daniil Medvedev
Rafael Jodar
1st serve in
62.2%
62.1%
1st serve points won
72.8%
69.4%
2nd serve points won
48.9%
51.5%
Form
Daniil Medvedev
10–0
Rafael Jodar
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Jodar?
Maiden gives Daniil Medvedev a 56% chance to beat Rafael Jodar in the Shanghai semifinal on October 17, 2026.
How confident is the Daniil Medvedev pick?
56% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 56%, picks in that range have won 65% of the time (361 so far). See the track record page for the full table.